President Obama CIR Speech and Prospect for CIR Legislation

The President and Hispanic leaders have apparently been under tremendous pressure from the Hispanic community and Mexico on the Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR) legislation.

The Obama speech appeared to be a by-product of such political pressure and a political statement. As for the legislative agenda for the 111th Congress, there is practically no room for the Congress to accommodate and complete this legislation before the end of December 31, 2010.

The practical question on success of this legislation within this calendar year lies not with introduction of such CIR bill within the year but successful passage of the bill within the year. Implicitly, this has been admitted both by the Democrats and the Hispanic leaders. However, it does not translate into the conclusion that the Obama speech was meaningless and purely a political gimmick.

There were numerous reports in the Washington political circles that the Democratic leaders were accepting early CIR legislative agenda for 112th Congress that will open in January 2011. In order to achieve such agenda, the CIR legislation momentum will have to be continuously built this year. In this regard, other than calculation of November election, the Democrats appear to be moving into a right direction. Question then remains: Whether this strategy can survive the November election. It thus translate into a more substantive question of whether the Democrats will be able to keep majority seats in both the Senate and the House after the election.

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